Title and Abstract

Title:  Data-Constrained Modeling of Eruptions in the Solar Corona: Incorporating state-of-the-art science into the next generation of space weather modeling tools

Abstract:   Understanding the energy storage and release processes of solar eruptions, also known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), remains a key science driver in solar and heliospheric physics. At the same time, there is an ever-present need to improve our space weather tools and prediction capabilities for CMEs. In this talk I will cover our efforts at Predictive Science Inc. (PSI) to approach this problem from a physics-based modeling perspective. First, I will illustrate how data-constrained MHD modeling, which incorporates low coronal physics, tailored flux-rope models, and boundary driving, can be used to capture the thermal-magnetic evolution of an observed CME from the pre- to post-eruption state. In capturing the erupting flux-system, such modeling can be used to study myriad related phenomena in tandem, such as coronal waves, dimming, and connectivity changes. Second, I will discuss our efforts to streamline this process, making tools that can facilitate physics-based simulations of CMEs for the broader scientific and space weather communities. This includes our current flux-rope modeling tool, the “CORHEL TDm interface”, currently available for runs-on-request at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as major extensions that are currently in development. In this work, our ultimate goal is to develop powerful but user-friendly tools for simulating the thermal-magnetic evolution of CMEs from the base of the corona to Earth and beyond.